This higher sensitivity contributes to projections of greater warming this century – around 0.4C warmer than similar scenarios run in CMIP5 – though these warming projections may change as more models become available. While the results from only around 40 CMIP6 models have been published so far, it is already evident that a number of them have a notably higher climate sensitivity than models in CMIP5. These models are running a number of new and updated emission pathways that explore a much wider range of possible future outcomes than were included in CMIP5. The effort is already a year behind schedule, and it appears increasingly unlikely that all the CMIP6 models will be available in time for inclusion in the AR6.Įnough data is now available for Carbon Brief to produce an assessment of how things have changed since CMIP5. The 2013 IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) featured climate models from CMIP5, while the upcoming 2021 IPCC sixth assessment report (AR6) will feature new state-of-the-art CMIP6 models.ĬMIP6 will consist of the “runs” from around 100 distinct climate models being produced across 49 different modelling groups. These coordinated efforts are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP). These modelling groups coordinate their updates around the schedule of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, releasing a set of model results – known as “runs” – in the lead-up to each one. These models simulate the physics, chemistry and biology of the atmosphere, land and oceans in great detail, and require some of the largest supercomputers in the world to generate their climate projections.Ĭlimate models are constantly being updated, as different modelling groups around the world incorporate higher spatial resolution, new physical processes and biogeochemical cycles. Climate models are one of the primary means for scientists to understand how the climate has changed in the past and may change in the future.

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